Background: In patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-23 is suspected to cause death or cardiovascular disease by inducing left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH).

Objectives: This study aims to quantify the mediational effect of LVH in the hypothetical causal pathway from FGF-23 to long-term adverse outcomes.

Methods: From 3,939 adults with CKD stages 2 to 4 enrolled in the CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) study, 2,368 participants with available data of FGF-23, left ventricular mass index at 1 year, and covariates were included. We employed linear and Cox proportional hazards regression models to investigate the association between FGF-23 and LVH, all-cause mortality, atrial fibrillation (AF), or congestive heart failure (CHF). Mediation analysis was used within a counterfactual framework to decompose the effect of FGF-23 into natural direct and indirect effects.

Results: Among 2,368 participants (mean age: 57.7 years, 1,252 males, median FGF-23 level: 138.8 RU/mL), left ventricular mass index was positively correlated with FGF-23. During a median of 12.0, 11.1, and 11.1 years, FGF-23 was associated with all-cause mortality (HR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.24-2.12), AF (HR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.12-2.24), and CHF (HR: 1.32, 95% CI: 0.95-1.84) when the highest quartile was compared to the lowest quartile. LVH mediated 7.4%, 11.2%, and 21.9% of the effect of FGF-23 on all-cause mortality, AF, and CHF, respectively.

Conclusions: In CKD patients, FGF-23 had a minor effect on the development of long-term adverse outcomes through LVH. Other potential mediators and the validity of negative effect of FGF-23 should be explored.

Dr Nangaku has received research support and honoraria from 10.13039/501100004095Kyowa Kirin Co, Ltd. Dr Ito has received research support from 10.13039/501100004095Kyowa Kirin Co, Ltd. All other authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose.